Fantasy Football Start ’em Sit ’em Week 17
Another hell of a week boys. I was just going over my results from last week and I seriously can’t believe how close I was to nailing both. As analysts we do our best to give the best advice and predict to the best of our ability. That doesn’t mean we will always be close but man does it feel good when you come as close as I have been. Although I did not accurately predict how Mullens got to his point total as he threw for 412 yards with 2 passing TD’s and 4, yes 4 interceptions he finished with 20.54 points and I predicted he would score 20.74 points. While I did not expect him to throw for 400 yards or 4 interceptions my logic was that they would need to heavily rely on the pass game and that Mullens would be making mistakes as well, which is essentially what happened. Mullens finished the week as QB11 which is pretty much where I liked him as a high end QB2 and another successful stat of the week. The Jefferson/ Mullens stack I gave out for DFS also scored a combined 52.64 points (there are bonus points in dfs for 100 and 300 yard passing games) and was a huge hit for just a combined $13,400 in salary.
I also almost nailed the sit of the week, Terry McLaurin, to a tee as well. Terry was coming off a huge week in his own right in week 15 and I warned against trusting Terry. Terry caught 3 of his 5 targets for 50 yards and finished with 8.0 points and finished WR52 on the week. I had him catching 3 of his 6 targets for 46 yards for 7.6 points. Just .4 points off and .6 off when you combine my predictions for the featured start and sit. I also finished atop the standing in my DFS league (24 teams) for the regular season and am feeling really confident heading into the fantasy championships. Let’s make this another great week and finish this year off with a chip!!
Week 17 Start ’em
Chris Olave – Saints WR
There were a few people I was considering to make the start of the week, including Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Even though he missed today (illness) there is still a chance Isiah Pacheco could clear concussion protocol in time and put CEH back to his complementary role. If Pacheco is out however, I will be playing CEH for $5,300 via draftkings against a Bengals defense that has been gashed on the ground in recent weeks by the Steelers and Vikings. Another player I really like and relies a bit on someone else’s availability is TE Gerald Everett of the Chargers. Everett has had 3 straight games of 8 targets and has had 5 straight games of 8.4 or more fantasy points. If Keenan Allen (heel) remains out, look for Everrett to continue to be a favorite target for Easton Stick against the Broncos who are dead last against tight ends. P.S. what the hell is up with Vance Joseph and his inability to guard tight ends?!? If Allen is out I will also be playing Everett at $3,500 via draftkings who doesn’t have the highest of ceilings but is as likely as every to find the endzone this week verse Denver.
As for my start of the week in Chris Olave I am aware he is not the spiciest of plays and we have been going spicy lately. I gave the two above partially because of the injuries that affect them plus the fact that many of you are probably already starting Olave. But man do I love Chris Olave this week. Olave had 5 straight weeks of double digit fantasy points before missing the GIants game with an ankle sprain just to return for 9 for 123 on 13 targets this past weekend against the Rams. I was most concerned how he would look coming off the ankle injury, although it was just a low ankle it made it very mercurial that he missed a week with it. But after watching him slice up the Rams defense with his usual crips route running it was clear Olave did not miss a beat and is back. Another key facet to this equation in Olave’s success is the health and improved play of his quarterback Derek Carr. Carr got off to a bit of a bumpy start this year and has even dealt with 3 separate rib fractures, 2 of which were not reported at the time. So joining a new team and battling so many injuries it does make sense now why Carr had struggled early. However, Carr has gotten into a rhythm of late throwing for 3 TD passes in each of his last two starts and even throwing for 319 yards in his last start.
The Saints take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road who, with the aid of Baker Mayfield, have taken the NFC South by storm. In general it feels like all of the attention and storyline is about Baker, the Bucs and how they just smoked a very hampered Jaguars team. I think this is a great chance for the Saints as a team, especially as a passing attack to make a big splash. Although we are not taking Carr himself in this with his recent success and the Bucs giving up the ninth most points to opposing QBs it certainly bodes well for us. Additionally, the Bucs have given up the fourth most points to opposing WRs this year and I believe Olave is poised to continue this trend. Olave should see an abundance of targets and easily be able to soar over his yard projection (66) and also profiles as a great value for dfs at $6,800 via draftkings. The main Sunday dfs option includes just the 1pm and 4pm games and he is sixteenth lowest! Absolute disrespect for Olave and an immense value for us. Bottom line is I like Olave every way possible this week; dfs, fantasy, over on yards, and I even like him to score at +135. GIve me Olave as a top 8 fantasy WR this week!
Week 17 Projection: 8 receptions on 12 targets for 118 yards and 1 touchdown (25.8 points)
QBs to Start
RBs to Start
WRs to Start
Michael PIttman Jr.
TEs to Start
Week 17 Sit ’em
Tua Tagovailoa – Dolphins QB
I think many may be split on Tua this week and in 1QB leagues I am definitely on the sit Tua train. Tua has had a very nice season in real life but has seen little to no success from a fantasy perspective of late. Tua sits as the QB13 on the season but that is a little misleading as he has finished as a top 10QB just once in the last five weeks.In fact, aside from week 13 against the pitiful Commanders the other 4 weeks Tua’s finishes are 26th, 23rd, 23rd, and 22nd. Pretty horrible if you’re in a 1 QB league, heck that’s even bad if you’re in a 2QB league. It’s also becoming more than likely that Jaylen Waddle will not be able to go for the Dolphins. This would take away Tua’s second option who has had a really nice second half of the year and make it much more plausible for the Ravens to double Tyree Hill who is also not at 100% with an ankle injury. If Hill were to be unable to finish the game it would put the Dolphins in a big hole.
The matchup is an interesting one as the total for this game sits at 47 points, implying this should be a high scoring affair. I talk about targeting games with high totals as it will be more likely for you player to score in theory. But you still need to factor in how often they use Mostert when they get in close and his 21 TDs. The Ravens just made then MVP-favorite Brock Purdy and co look beyond febrile as Purdy threw 4 picks and Darnold threw one himself in relief. It should be noted that the status of Ravens star-rookie safety Kyle Hamilton is still up in the air after injuring his knee in the win against the Niners. But still the Ravens are the second toughest matchup for opposing QBs and present quite the challenge for Tua with or without Hamilton. Like I said prior in 1 QB leagues I’m also undoubtedly benching Tua and I would even look for other options in 2 QB leagues if possible. I envision a game in which the Ravens have the lead and Tua is being put in obvious passing situations and will struggle mightily. Keep Tua on the bench (or even drop him if he’s worse than your opponents options).
Week 17 Projection: Completing 22 of 37 passes for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions (11.44 points)
QBs to Sit
RBs to Sit
Brian Robinson Jr.
WRs to Sit
TEs to Sit
If you have any questions about your starting lineup, you can find me on the Fantasy Couch Discord @sully
Make sure to watch the Week 17 waiver wire video in case there are any players on waivers or free agency that you might have missed.