Fight Projections & DFS Fighter Picks
UFC Fight Night Night 137 in São Paulo, Brazil takes place September 22, 2018.
Unable to provide weekly picks due to my work schedule I’m back and we are looking at this nice 14 fight card in Sao Paolo Brazil to get back on it. There are 6 fights expected to finish, and there are a couple of dog plays that could help us build our MMA DFS lineups so without any more delay here are the picks…
Santos -150 vs Anders +130
Santos via KO – GPP risk
Proj 80-90+ with a finish
Hedge spot for Anders at $7600
*** I’m still leaning towards a Santos finish but this fight can go either way and Anders could end up catching Santos and finishing him. What worries me in this contest is Anders lack of action exhibited in his previous fights. However in those contest he was the favorite and priced up to win. Here he is the dog play at $7600. Even in a loss if he is not finished you can potentially get a 30+ points score which is an excellent value for the price.
Alex Oliveira -425 vs Pedersoli +360
Oliveira via Sub
Hedge spot Pedersoli – GPP risk proj 30-70 in loss or WBD
Alvey -330 vs Noguera +270
Alvey via KO
Cash / GPP some risk
Barao -125 vs Ewell +105
Ewell via Dec – Cash/GPP some risk – Proj 60+ WBD
*** UPDATE Barao missed weight Ewell will still take the fight, I think this locks him in even more as the best dog pick on the card.***
Markos -115 vs Rodriguez -105
Markos via Dec – Fade spot
Charles Oliveira -370 vs Giagos +310
Oliveira via KO
***Hedge play Giagos – I’m not seeing a lot of play for Giagos so I think I’m going to make him my break or make dog play and get more exposure to him while hedging 1 lineup with Charles.
Trinaldo-225 vs Dunham +215
Trinaldo via Dec
Proj 60+ WBD
***Update after looking at some of my previous notes I think I like Trinaldo more and will move him up the rankings.
Sakai -255 vs Sherman
Sakai via KO
Proj 70-90+ in finish or WBD
Moraes -300 vs Saunders +250
Moraes via Dec
Dog or pass / fade spot
*** Still not liking Moraes here so I think I’m going to play Saunders in at least 1 lineup to help roster the top tier fighters.
Bueno Silva +125 vs Robertson -145
Bueno Silva via Dec
Stack fight Robertson via Sub
*** Expecting alot of action here and think you play this one 50/50. Could see a lot of takedowns and advances with one of these fighters getting a finish.
Leites +110 vs Lombard -130
Lombard via Dec – Fade spot
Zaleski Dos Santos -800 vs Vendramini
Zaleski via KO – Cash/ GPP
***UPDATE – The problem I’m having with this fight is Zaleski salary of 9400 which would require a 100+ score to pay value. If this fight isn’t finished early Zaleski could end up with a score in the high 80s or 90s. Thats good for cash but not GPP.
Souza -1300 vs Chambers
Souza via Sub
***Highest salary fighter has to score over 110 to hit value IMO. I think I’m going to risk it and limit my exposure here to Souza.
Fights expected to finish
Souza ITD -275
Charles Oliveria ITD -215
Alex Oliveira -135
Upset / Dog pick
Anders – risk
Giagos – highs risk
Pedersoli – high risk
Saleski dos Santos $9500 70-100+ score
Alex Oliveira $9300 80-100+ score
Charles Oliveira $9400 70-90+ score
Sakai $8800 70-90 score
Trinaldo $8900 70+ score
Santos $8600 70+ score
Roberson $8300 40-90+ score
Ewell $7700 30-80+ score
Bueno Silva $7900 20-80+ score
Anders $7600 20-70+ score
Pedersoli $6900 30-40+ score
Giagos $6800 – extreme risk 0-70+ score
DraftKings lineup construction
Souza is clearly the best play on the card with an odds favorite of -1400 and a salary of $9600. I will be pivoting from her and either moving to Zaleski for $100 less or Alex Oliveira my preferred play at $9300. Charles Oliveira always has the potential to finish a fight quickly and Vegas expects him to, his salary of $9400 allows another pivot from Souza and Zaleski with the potential to score well. I believe Charles will be popular and in GPP I will pivot some spots from him to either Alex Olveira or pay up for the Zaleski potential highlight reel KO. In some of those lineups that pivot spot from Charles will also lead me to play my boom or bust dog pick of Giagos with his savings salary of $6800.
My preferred plays in this tier are Zaleski dos Santos $9500 and Alex Oliveira $9300.
The next round of fighters finds me totally fading 2 fighters in Sam Alvey and Sergio Moraes at $9200 and $9100. I don’t like Alveys low volume counter fighting and would rather pay down for the potential finish from power striker Saki at $8800 or Trinaldo facing a retiring fighter at $8900. The Moraes fade is risky but will push me to play his opponent Saunders with his salary of $7100. After these fighters I’ll have some exposure to Santos at $8600 and Robertson at $8300.
My preferred plays here are Saki $8800 and Roberson $8300.
Lastly I’m starting the dog picks with Ewell at $7700 facing former champion Barreo who missed weight and will forfeit 30% of his fight money. There has been some line movement on Ewell and I think this fight should have been closer to pick’em to start. After Ewell I like Bueno Silva at $7900, as stated earlier this one you have to play 50/50 as it could go either way. I do like both Ewell and Bueno Silva over Anders at $7600. I think Anders will be popular so be sure to have some exposure to him especially in cash. One of my GPP lineups has 3 fighters priced over 9k so I’ll be taking some shots on either Saunders at $7100, Pedersoli $6900 and the extremely risky Giagos at $6800.
My preferred picks here are Ewell $7700, Bueno Silva $7900 and Anders $7600.
Good Luck and as always you can find me on twitter @Jobus_DFS