Fight Projections & DFS Fighter Picks
UFC Fight Night in Boise, Idaho takes place this Saturday July 14th, 2018.
With no last minute cancellations we have a full 13 fights going down with several fighters making their UFC Debuts.
Here are the picks…
Dos Santos -175 vs Ivanov +155
Vegas expects Fight to finish, could see this one possibly going to decision. That’s if Dos Santos chin holds up after some of the wars he’s been in. Either way you are going to want a piece of this one as it’s the main event with 5 possible rounds of scoring. I’ll be on the Dos Santos side of this expecting him to either finish UFC newcomer or take a hard fought decision. Probably a good idea to take a least 1 or 2 shares of Ivanov to hedge your lineup in case he catches Dos Santos.
Dos Santos via Dec
91+ WBD ITD +105
Northcutt -130 vs Ottow +110
Basically a pick em spot, but I’ll go Ottow via dec.
Proj 50-60 WBD
Bermudez -250 vs Glenn +210
Bermudez is in a must win spot, he should be able to beat Glenn everywhere but we’ve all been upset by Bermudez in the past as he’s dropped all 3 of his last fights.
Bermudez via Dec but play this one both ways.
Proj. 84+ WBD
Brown -125 vs Price +105
This one can go either way and Price has been known to upset here. Another hedge spot in GPP and the more I look at it I think I’m going to have both these guys in my lineup.
Brown via Dec but hedge this one 50/50
Proj. 52+ WBD
Jury +130 vs Mendez -150
Jury is going to be chalky here but he is the best dog at his salary vs Mendez who’s been out since 2015.
Jury via KO
Proj. 59-79+
Zingano +100 vs Reneau -170
Reneau is one of my favorite female fighters, I think the UFC wants to push her here and I can see her making her way up the division maybe 1 fight away from the title. That’s if she gets by Zingano which I think can either via finish or decision. A finish would be huge for draftkings but if it goes to decision it could score in the 50-60 range which is good for cash but not GPP unless your other fighters do really well.
Reneau via Dec
Proj 58+ WBD
Wineland +150 vs Perez -170
Although I expect Perez to win via dec here I can’t recommend him as I think a few fighters can outscore him. I keep wanting to plug in Wineland and was initially on him but I think I’ll limit my exposure to 1 share with a full fade of Perez here.
Perez via Dec – fade spot
Elkins +255 vs Volkanovski -310
Volkanovski should be the highest owned fighter I’ll have heavy exposure to him here, Should score really well even in a win via Dec
Proj. 94+ WBD
Scoggins +130 vs Nurmagomedov-150
I’m not one of the guys that has been burned by Scoggins in his past fights so I don’t have any kind of bias towards picking him. That being said, I have seen his really bad fight IQ in a those fights leading to his losses there. For that reason I’ll full fade him here again.
Nurmegomedov via Dec
Proj 60+ WBD
But hedge spot as it’s close to PickEm spot
Holdbaugh -185 vs Barcelos +160
One of these guys is going to get finished here. I’ll take the newcomer via TKO
Barcelos via TKP
Proj. 70-90+
Carmouche -130 vs Maia +110
Another PickEm spot but I’m going with Carmouche via Dec
Fade spot
De La Rosa +120 vs Garcia -140
Garcia via KO
Proj 90+
Aguilar +125 vs Esquibel -145
Another PickEm spot I’ll play this one both ways
Aguilar via Dec
Proj. 71+ WBD
Rankings:
Volkanovski $9200
Garcia $8600
Bermudez $9000
Dos Santos $8700
Nurmagomedov $8500
Dog Picks:
Jury $7300
Price $7900
Barcelos $7400 – GPP only
Ottow $7800
Wineland $7100 – GPP only
Slate Write Up:
This event had GPP written all over it for me, I think the winning lineup will stand alone above the others unlike a lot of the MMA slates where we usually have ties at the top and throughout the contest. The main event can go either way and only one fighter is heavily favored in Volkanovski. I’ll have the most exposure to him and Garcia which I think will get a finish and be low owned. After those two fighters I’m going to play the best dog pick of Jury at $7300 and pivot off him with either Barcelos and Wineland in at least 1 line to differentiate from the field. From there you can shift to my next highest owned fighter in Dos Santos finishing up with Reneau at $8100 leaving you $8100 to either go Price, Ottow or down to Barcelos. I’ll go Price here as Price offers the most upside at his “Price”.
The hedge play off this lineup with Volkanovski and Garcia locked in has to start with a Dos Santos fade; if you do this plug in Ivanov at $7500 as your dog pick. Then replace Dos Santos with by moving up to Bermudez at $9000. Going this route leaves you enough salary to either go balanced by picking Price again which leaves you $7800 to either play Jury, Barcelos or take a shot on Wineland. Going Wineland you could then move off Price to either his opponent Brown or Nurmagomedov, Wineland and Brown would be the lesser owned of the fighters but then again that’s how you win a gpp right? I guess we’ll find out Saturday, Good luck everyone.
