Fight Projections & DFS Fighter Picks
UFC 226 takes place July 7, 2018. Here are
Holloway is out for UFC 226.
UFC 226 is still a stacked & awesome card with several different ways to go in CASH and GPP games.
Here are the picks…
Miocic -230 vs Cormier +210
This is an awesome fight and will be very exciting from start to finish. In DFS Miocic is the play at his current salary of $8900
Stack this fight in cash, as DC should score a well in this five round fight to cover his salary of $7300.
Stipe Miocic via DEC
Proj points 99+ WBD
Ngannou -370 vs Lewis +310
Fight will finish but if Ngannou doesn’t KO Lewis before the second round he may not hit value for salary his salary of $9300. I don’t see Lewis pulling an upset here but this is a heavyweight fight and anything can happen.
Ngannou via TKO
ITD -189
Proj points 50-90+
Chiesa -160 vs Pettis +140
I believe this is one of the best fights to target in gpp. Chiesa will go overlooked at his current salary of $8600. While this fight is expected to go to a decision. I believe he can finish Pettis who has been KOd 2 times out of his last 3 fights. While I don’t expect Chiesa to knock out Pettis if he can get it to the ground the sub is there.
Chiesa via Sub
Proj 60-90+
Saki -135 vs Roundtree +115
I’m calling this a GPP play with some risk since I have never picked a Roundtree fight right.
Saki via TKO
ITD-105
Proj 90-100+
Hall +335 vs Costa -420
This one offers the best inside the distance prop for Costa to finish this fight at -190. There is some risk here as Hall possess KO ability as well but I’ll side with Vegas here and take the heavy favorite.
Costa via KO
Proj 90-100+
Felder -155 vs Perry +135
In my opion this fight should be closer to a Pick’Em than what the odds currently show. Perry can finish this fight but I feel Felder is more technical and can outduel Perry to a win by decision. At his current salary Felder provides the best underdog play at $7400.
Perry via DEC but hedge this in GPP with Mike Perry.
Proj 60-80 WBD
Assuncao -170 vs Font +150
This is another one of my riskier plays as Assuncao is the favorite at -170. I really like Font and if he can get an upset via KO it could be huge for us. More likely it’s going to the judges where I’ll have Font winning a close Dec.
Gpp play undergo pick at $7100 with some potential to finish.
Proj 70-80+
Millender -165 vs Griffin +145
Millender via Dec
Proj 60+ WBD
Hooker -120 vs Burns +100
Another very risky fight to pick as either fighter has the Potential to put the other away. I would hedge this one as I also like Burns as a gpp play of $7700.
Hooker via Dec
Proj 60-90+
Vannatta-185 vs Klose +160
Vannatta via Dec
Big fan of both of these guys so this one is hard to pick. I could see this one being a very exciting high scoring fight with Vannatta edging out a dec here.
Proj 80-90 WBD
Moyle -190 vs Whitmire +165
Moyle via Dec
Not looking at this one very much especially at her salary so a smart gpp play would be to take Moyle as the field will mostly fade this one. However if it turns out the way I expect you could end up paying $9200 for a very weak 70-80 points.
Fade spot for me
Fighters expected to finish
Costa ITD -190
Ngannou ITD -189
Saki ITD -105
Rankings***
Costa $9400
Stipe $8900
Saki $8400
Vannatta $9000
Ngannou $9300
Chiesa $8600
Underdog plays
Cormier $7300 – Cash/GPP
Felder $7400- Cash very popular play
Burns $7700- GPP
Font $7100- GPP
Lewis $6900 – GPP extreme risk
Using my notes, rankings and dog plays here is how I’m going about my lineup construction for UFC 226. The top play to pay up for and I do believe it will be popular is Costa at $9400. In Costa we are looking for a score of 90-100+ and I can see him doing this as he’s the heavy favorite with the best finishing prop. If you do want to fade this spot the obvious pivot is to skip the next 4 fighters and pay down for Stipe at $8900. Here’s why… Ngannou would be the obvious move and I think he will also be popular but Ngannou would need a 1st round finish to score over 100 points where Stipe and DC are set to battle for 5 rounds; Stipe through either a finish or pure output averages out 100 points. So in my opinion Stipe outscores all the fighters ahead of him if he doesn’t get KO’d himself.
The last pivot spot at the higher salary fighters is a little more risky but Vannatta is the other way I can see myself going at $9000 I think people will either pay up for Costa or Ngannou or simply play Stipe and move down to the next tier of fighters. Vannatta’s high output and possible finish could land you a score anywhere from high 80s into the 100s.
These next set of fighters is where I can see a lot of contest getting decided. If you roster Costa or Ngannou and Stipe you may only be able to roster 1 maybe 2 of these fighters. My preferred play here is Saki at $8400 and it has me scared to death as I can never seem to pick a Roundtree fight correctly. So to cover myself I will pivot this play here by taking another risky play in Chiesa who I think will be less popular but could score close to Saki or outscore him if Saki can’t get the finish. I’m not super high on Millender and feel Perry needs to finish his fight to outscore both Saki and Chiesa. So Saki and Chiesa are my preferred plays here.
Lastly the dog picks and if you decide to roster two of the top dogs in $8900-9400 range you are going to need 2 plays here. The field will go to Burns at $7700, Felder at $7400 or DC at $7300. The Burns play will be the lesser owned of the 3 because his salary pushes him closer to the next tier of fighters and I can see people preferring to pay down rather than go Burns. However Burns is a very good play as he’s shown some KO power and with his elite ground game could take Hooker down and pull of a submission. The more popular plays in cash and GPP will be DC & Felder at their extreme value below $7400. DC should be the obvious play as he is set to fight 5 rounds and even in a loss can provide a score upwards of 60 points which is a huge return for his salary. As for Felder he comes with a little more risk as he could win by decision scoring over 80 points, but if Perry who has some serious KO power catches Felder and drops you can gain a huge advantage on the field in GPP by paying down to a play with just as much potential to finish. For me that move is to Rob Font at $7100. I don’t think Assuncao will finish this fight and to me it gives Font a punchers chance and a KO here would be huge. The other pivot if you aren’t rostering Ngannou or want to hedge the play is Lewis as it’s a heavyweight fight and anything is possible. Rostering Lewis at $6900 and Font at $7100 opens up a lot of salary to build with. This is strictly a GPP play and in cash the dog picks have to be DC at $7300 and Felder at $7400.
Good luck Saturday
