Fight Projections & DFS Fighter Picks
Fight projections for UFC Fight Night 129 in Chile are revealed as well as DFS fighter picks and recommendations. You can check out the previous here. All MMA content is now free and you don’t need an account!
Here are the picks…
Usman -660 vs Maia +540
I think Usman is getting a real test here with Damian Maia, from a pure fight standpoint there’s no question Usman should get the win here. However on Draftkings I have to wonder if he can pay off the salary at $9600. This fight could go similar to the Woodley fight and Usman can end up stuffing Maia’s takedown attempts but barely lading enough strikes to score only around 80-90+ points; that score would not return value on Usmans salary. Of course he could knock out Maia and score 120+ or take him down several times while not advancing the position and repeat. Either way the pick is Usman via Dec.
If you feel like being super contrarion you could take a shot on on the 6700 priced Maia. He could possibly catch Usman and submit him which would be huge. Or if it goes to decision like I feel it will he could possible score close to 40 points. This is a big risk play here.
Usman via Dec – CASH safe
Proj. points 100+
Grasso vs Suarez -750
Suarez $9400 via Dec CASH and GPP safe
Proj 100+ score
Cannoiner vs Reyes -240
Reyes $9000 via KO GPP some risk
Rivas -170 vs Cannetti
Rivas $8600 via Sub – GPP some risk
Macedo vs Lee -265
Lee $9200 via Dec – CASH or GPP -risk
Hedge play only Macedo $7000 via DEC – GPP extreme risk
Luque 9-215 vs Laprisse
Luque $8800 via KO – CASH or GPP safe
Cummings -185 vs Prazeres
Cummings $8400 via Dec – CASH or GPP safe
Moreno +110 vs Pantoja -120
Moreno $8000 via Dec – CASH or GPP some risk
Proj – 80+
Botehlo -135 vs Kondo +135
Kondo $7500 via Dec – GPP some risk
Benitez -225 vs Bandenay
Benitez $8700 via Sub – GPP Risk
Hedge this play in GPP Bandenay $7700 via KO
Barzola -210 vs Davis +190
Davis $7300 via Dec – Cash or GPP some risk Barzola not a finisher take the Dog or pass
Saenz -320 vs Briones
Saenz $9100 via Dec – In DFS due to salary fade spot
Silva -320 vs Puellas
Silva $9400 via KO – GPP some risk
There aren’t many underdogs you can build confidently around on this card. In cash you may want to start with Usman and Suarez both heavily favored to win. You can then take Luque, who I am playing everywhere. He is my favorite fighter to use on this card. 3 wins from these 3 fighters should have you close to if not over a score of 300. Finally with your remaining salary you can pick the 2 underdogs I feel can score well even if they lose in Kondo at $7500 & Briones $7100. Between these possibly scoring anywhere from 20-30 DK points your cash line should be close to 400 if not a little over. This line here leaves you exactly $200 shy of the $8k you need to roster Moreno who I really like in this event. Here’s where the decision comes to play. We have to either drop Kondo to Davis who I also like as a dog pick or we can take a shot on using someone I think might be lesser owned while keeping Kondo who could very well win her fight locking up your cash line. My choice on this one is going to be to fade Moreno for Bandenay giving this line a slight GPP shift. If both Kondo and Bandenay surprise with a finish or make it an exciting high scoring fight this line here has the potential to score over 500 easily locking up your cash while also giving you decent return in GPP.
DK CASH and Single entry GPP line
To help you build your other lines here are my rankings for this event. Good LUCK!!!!
Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter @Jobus_DFS
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