Before we get into my list of 2015 fantasy football sleeper running backs, let’s define what a sleeper is. A sleeper is a player that has a realistic chance of being drafted significantly past their value and/or ADP. So, if a running back is always being drafted in the fifth round but has a third round value, then that player is a sleeper. Players that are undervalued and/or who slip in drafts are sleepers.
Ameer Abdullah and C.J. Anderson unfortunately weren’t able to make this sleeper list because their stock has been rising. Abdullah went from a sixth-rounder to a fourth-rounder; I like him in the fifth round. Anderson went from being regarded as an early second round pick to a Top 8 pick in drafts and rankings.
For each player below, I will display their team, Bye Week, 12-man ADP/ADP in PPR leagues. In addition to that, I will reveal what their real value will be in standard/PPR based on my projections and rankings. Just to be clear here is the format:
Player name TEAM, Bye Week
Standard ADP/PPR ADP | Actual value in standard leagues/Actual value in PPR leagues
Top 9 Fantasy Football Sleeper RBs for 2015
1. Theo Riddick DET, 9
ADP 19.07/18.05 | Real Value: 12.09/11.08
I wouldn’t let Theo Riddick go past Round 11 in a 12-man PPR. Target Riddick before you draft a defense (and kicker), but after you have drafted all your other starters. If you went RB-heavy in the early rounds, then you have the luxury of waiting until the late rounds, since he’s going undrafted even in 14-man leagues.
2. LeGarrette Blount NE, 4
ADP 5.11/6.08 | Real Value: 4.10/4.11
There are some factors to deter you from drafting Blount: his one-game suspension, Tom Brady’s possible four-game suspension and of course Belitricks (running back by committee). We expect Blount will be the bell cow on early downs, while being backed up by Jonas Grey, and James White should take over the the pass-catching role. I expect Blount to put up RB2 numbers during Week 2-16.
3. Jonathan Stewart CAR, 5
ADP 4.06/4.11 | Real Value: 3.06/3.05
Let’s compare Jonathan Stewart’s fourth round ADP to Jeremy Hill’s second round ADP. Hill is being drafted late in the first round in a lot of standard leagues, and Hill’s ADP in PPR leagues is only four spots later at 2.05. Jeremy Hill is projected to get under 1,300 total yards and 10 total touchdowns. I project Jonathan Stewart to get 1,200 total yards and total 7 TDs. Hill will average 1.5 rec/gm compared to Stewart’s 2.3 rec/gm. Wait two more rounds to get Stewart rather than drafting Jeremy Hill early, especially in a PPR league. If you don’t like Stewart, that’s OK, you can target Forsett much earlier in the draft, or go for Lamar Miller, who’s going a few picks before Stewart.
4. Lamar Miller MIA, 5
ADP 3.03/3.04 | Real Value: 2.10/3.04
Miller’s ADP is very close to where his value is, but here’s the thing: I was able to draft Lamar Miller at 3.11 in my 12-man PPR league. It seems like owners are catching on and drafting Miller at his correct low-end RB1/high-end RB2 spot. Unfortunately, Miller might not be a sleeper for long as he is being drafted one spot earlier every week. There’s still a good chance he will be slept on in your draft, especially if owners start getting WR and QB-happy in the early rounds. Miller has a high floor and should be the main running back on the Dolphins.
5. Latavius Murray OAK, 6
ADP 3.12/4.03 | Real Value: 3.07/3.12
Wow! Just a few weeks ago, Latavius was being drafted late in the fourth/early in the fifth. Perhaps owners needed a little more time to acknowledge that Trent Richardson won’t be stealing any playing time from the second-year running back. This Raiders organization really started turning things around last season. Oakland was still a joke last year, but this year they are on their way to becoming a mediocre team that could win six games. The Raiders will still need to throw the ball often, but surely not as often as last year when they attempted the fourth most passes (629) in the league.
Some owners will be hesitant to draft a young, Oakland running back and if that’s the case, don’t hesitate to draft Latavius Murray mid-late in the fourth round. Latavius is a high-end RB2 with a high ceiling.
6. Roy Helu OAK, 6
ADP 13.09/12.05 | Real Value: 12.06/10.05
Roy Helu is a sleeper, but only in PPR leagues. In standard formats, he is being drafted at the right spot (Round 13 compared to his actual Round 12 value). If you reached for Latavius Murray in a PPR, then Roy Helu makes for a decent handcuff. Helu will put up RB4 numbers when Latavius is healthy, and will put up RB3 numbers if Latavius gets hurt.
7. Lance Dunbar DAL, 6
ADP 18.09/18.04 | Real Value: 17.03/15.04
There has been a lot of injury news concerning the Cowboys’ backfield, but let’s assume the likely scenario that Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar are healthy when the regular season starts. Darren McFadden is the most injury-prone running back in fantasy football, so Dunbar is in line to be more than just a pass-catching back for Dallas. If McFadden is injured, Randle should share some of the carries with Dunbar. If McFadden is “healthy,” the former Raider may not be used that much as his skills have declined (probably from all the injuries he’s suffered). Dunbar is nothing more than a late-round, PPR flier who is going undrafted in most leagues.
8. James White NE, 4
ADP 16.01/15.01 | Real Value: 14.11/14.02
Realistically, James White is not being drafted in 12-man, 16-round leagues. I estimated that if he were to get drafted in 12-man leagues, it would be in the last round. You may want to pass on White in standard formats, but in PPR leagues, he is worth a late-round flier.
9. Daniel Herron IND, 10
ADP 16.06/13.12 | Real Value: 15.02/14.08
There’s not a big difference here when you look at Boom Herron’s ADP, but he is going undrafted in many 12-man leagues. If he’s available in the really late rounds, then don’t hesitate to grab him, especially as a handcuff to Frank Gore in PPR. Several leagues will be drafting the Patriots defense, the Packers defense and also kickers like Connor Barth before Dan Herron.
Honorable Mentions
- David Cobb TEN, 4
- Doug Martin TB, 6
- Duke Johnson CLE, 11
These players are being drafted earlier than their real value, but that’s on average. In offline (in-person) drafts, there’s a good chance one of these guys will be slept on, so be ready to capitalize on the opportunity. Also, keep an eye out on former rugby star, Jarryd Hayne, especially in deep leagues that award points for return yards. He likely won’t see any snaps at running back early in his career, but he is a special athlete as a return man.
