The goal in your fantasy baseball draft should be to maximize value while minimizing bust, especially in the early rounds. Owners need to know going into a draft which handful of players they don’t want to take too early or even stay away from completely. Don’t let a players’ name outshine their actual value. Not all the players listed below are fantasy baseball busts but can at least be labeled as overrated.
Yasiel Puig, OF LAD
The Los Angeles Dodgers went 46-10 from June 22 to August 23 of last year and it propelled them from last place in the National League West to the midst of a pennant race.
Yasiel Puig was called up to make his Big League debut on June 3 and there is no question he had a major impact on the turnaround with a .319 batting average, 19 round trippers, 42 runs batted in and 11 stolen bases in 104 games last season. Even with his rapid success, there are valid concerns about the young star and his ability to capture lighting in a bottle again.
If you take a deeper look at Puig’s rookie season, it was a little bit of a roller coaster. He busted onto the scene in June with a batting average of .449, but was brought back down to earth with .279 in July. The 23-year-old had an uptick to .320 in August and then a combined .218 in September and the few regular season games in October.
Puig comes across has a very streaky player with a reckless style of play that isn’t very conducive to playing 150+ games each season. His nickname, “Wild Horse” is for good reason as we’ve already seen him sit out a number of games due to small bumps or bruises last season. Those can only add up when he’s on the roster for a full 162-game slate.
Last but not least, there were no expectation, and opposing pitchers had no tape on him last year. This year, there are plenty of both and the dreaded sophomore slump could be lurking around the corner.
Curtis Granderson, OF NYM
Curtis Granderson has been a pretty good baseball player for a long time, but his days with the Mets will be fool’s gold for fantasy owners.
As a Yankee, the left-handed slugger had consecutive seasons with 40 or more home runs and at least 100 RBIs from 2011-12. So many of those homers that just scraped over the short, right field porch in Yankee stadium will be long outs in Citi Field. The lack of a supporting cast in the Mets lineups along with playing home games in a pitcher friendly ballpark will keep Granderson from reaching lofty numbers.
Owners also need to take into account that Granderson struck out in 30 percent of his at bats the past two seasons and hasn’t hit over .270 in any of the last five campaigns. Not to mention, other than in 2011-12 when Granderson had over 100 RBIs, the 32-year-old veteran has never topped more than 74.
B.J. Upton, OF Atl
B.J. is the type of player that can get general managers fired and fantasy owners searching the waiver wire early in the season. The Braves inked him to a five-year, $75.2 million contract before the 2013 season and Upton proceeded to bat a pitiful .184 with just nine long balls, 26 RBIs and 12 stolen bases in 126 games. He also struck out in 34 percent of his at-bats.
Luckily for GM Fred Wren, Atlanta still won 96 games and made the playoffs.
Upton has unquestioned five-tool talent, but ultimately his lack of production recently has greatly diminished his fantasy value. At age 29, there is plenty of time for Upton to turn it around and his potential will always entice owners on draft day.
The bottom line is he hasn’t averaged .250 in a season since 2008 and his strikeout percentage continues to go up while his on-base percentage and stolen bases have gone down. He is in the process of revamping his swing and it might be awhile, if ever, for him to find his stroke again. While other sites may have him penned down for a bounce-back year, this one won’t.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B Mil
In 2012, Aramis Ramirez turned in 27 home runs and 105 RBIs in his first season with the Milwaukee Brewers. Many believe he would have had similar numbers in 2013 had he not been bit by the injury bug. After all, Aramis finished with 12 home runs, 49 RBI’s and a batting average of .283 in only 92 games.
With that being said, the 14-year veteran will turn 36 this summer and health will be a bigger concern that can’t be overlooked. Even minor injuries can cause lingering effect like what we saw last year with Ramirez’s sprained knee and how it really limited his power.
With a position like third base, fantasy owners shouldn’t just see the name ‘Ramirez’ and automatically think he’s going to put up numbers with the top players anymore.
Brandon Phillips, 2B Cin
The Cincinnati Reds’ second baseman has been a Top-5 fantasy second over the last few years and sadly, that reign is coming to an end.
The batting average has plummeted over the past three years from .300 (2011), .281 (2012) and down to .261 (2013). There isn’t much room further south of .261 that one can go and still be considered elite.
For somebody whose fantasy value is largely based on home runs and RBIs, Phillips’ extra-base hits have declined in each of the last three seasons as well along with stolen bases and runs scored. At 32-years-old, it’s safe to say that Brandon Phillips best days are behind him.
