The first half of the Major League season is in the books and there were some players who produced well above their expectations and some that underwhelmed fantasy owners to the point of frustration. Fantasy Couch baseball writers Michael Morris, Spencer Firth and Andrew Eggers take a deeper look into players who were diamonds in the rough, players who will step it up and others that will regress in the second half. There is a lot to cover so let’s get to it.

Fantasy Couch - fantasy baseball writers - Michael Morris, Spencer Firth, Andrew Eggers

Best Value Hitter:

Morris – Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles, 1B

Although I did draft him, the Baltimore first baseman who leads the MLB in homers, has greatly exceeded the expectations I had for him coming into this season. Davis is putting up numbers that have warranted a first-round selection and he was going off the board behind guys like Hunter Pence, Rickie Weeks and Josh Willingham.

A player who was outside the Top-100 on most rankings before the season, Davis has been the prototypical value pick given the power and consistency he has exhibited in 2013. Davis is on pace for more than 150 runs batted in, over 55 homers and around 110 runs scored. Will he reach those numbers? I don’t expect him to. However, what he’s done is up there with some of the biggest surprises in the first half of the season and anybody who has drafted him knows how valuable he’s been to their roster.

Firth – Michael Cuddyer, Colorado Rockies, 1B/OF

Under baseball’s brightest lights, a player might find it easy getting lost in the shuffle of big name All-Stars, especially when you play for a small market club. Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer is enjoying his second All-Star selection (2011, 2013), and at 34-years-old, the 12-year veteran appears to be aging like fine wine. Besides Carlos Gonzalez, I think its fair to say that Cuddyer has had the best first half of the season for his team. His .332 average is… “that’s right folks”, 3rd best in all of baseball (2nd in NL). Not bad for a .274 career hitter, and his .567 SLG % for 2013 also ranks second in the National League. The Virginian-born slugger has been asked to participate in this years Home Run Derby for the first time in his career, after steadily clubbing 16 long balls, and driving in 55 runs so far.

Many of Cuddyer’s fantasy owners feel like they struck gold with this caliber of performance, especially from a player that was most likely drafted at random well after the 20th round. Cuddyer generated some national attention while riding a 27-game hitting streak into late June, which is the longest in Colorado Rockies history. During that stretch, the right fielder hit .372 with six homers and 19 RBI, as one of the hottest hitters in the Major Leagues. Even though his hit streak has come to an end, his productivity certainly hasn’t, so as long as Cuddyer remains healthy, his numbers are going to be tough to ignore.

Eggers – Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers, OF

Before the season started, Morris mentioned Puig in his “Sleepers” article with the idea that he would be pretty good for fantasy owners when he eventually got called up. It is safe to say that the 22-year-old Cuban defective has exceeded everyone’s expectations since playing his first game in the Bigs on June 3rd. The rookie’s .392 batting average, eight homeruns, 19 RBIs and five swiped bags is remarkable considering he’s played in 37 games so far in his young career.

Puig wasn’t drafted in a lot of fantasy leagues and could wind up being a first-round pick in most of next year’s drafts if he stays healthy. He is a five-tool player who plays with reckless abandon and has accumulated some minor injuries along the way, which could hinder his second-half production. All in all, we could be witnessing the start of Hall of Fame career and his fantasy value at this point is through the roof.

Best Value Pitcher:

Morris – Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs, SP

Travis Wood was one of the least popular pitchers on a rotation of unpopular pitchers. The most talked about Cubs players prior to the season’s genesis was shortstop Starlin Castro and the overvalued first baseman prospect/project Anthony Rizzo. Yet, it’s the pitching staff that has looked as strong as Rizzo’s forearm while Wood has tried to do his best Kerry Wood impression.

Although his record won’t grab your attention, his ERA (2.69) and WHIP (.974) should, as it’s even better than pitchers Cliff Lee, Bartolo Colon and Yu Darvish. I didn’t plan on drafting any Cubs pitchers prior to this season, but Wood has been an excellent pickup and if the draft was planned for today, he might be the first Cubs player taken. Wood is on pace to strikeout 150 batters this season if he continues to work on his K/BB impression. All the Cubs need to do now is work on an impression that involves them scoring more runs so he has a chance to rack up more wins.

Firth – Jeff Locke, Pittsburgh Pirates, SP

The Pirates couldn’t be happier with how the 25-year old Locke has been pitching, knowing that he has been a huge contributor to why the team has one of the best records in baseball. The Bucs (56-36) are fighting to stay on top of the NL Central, and with the Cardinals creeping closer and closer, they are going to need a strong second half out of their young rotation if they want to compete for a playoff birth.

The first year All-Star, who is also known as the “Redstone Rocket”, grew up in Redstone New Hampshire and was drafted in 2006 by the Atlanta Braves. After a few years of being a nomadic minor leaguer, the lefty was traded to the Pirates in a multi-player trade involving Nate McClouth.

Locke has been a pitching coaches dream in 2013, holding opposing hitters to a masterful .202 average prior to the All-Star break. His stingy 2.15 ERA is second best in the Major Leagues, only to fall behind fellow lefty Clayton Kershaw (1.98 ERA). He has gone 8-2 with a 1.13 WHIP so far. Locke suffered a rare loss in his last start, but hadn’t lost a game before that since his first start of the season. Fantasy owners who were smart enough to swoop him off of waivers are certainly reaping the benefits of adding such a cheap but valuable arm to their pitching depth.

Eggers – Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics, SP

The 40-year-old veteran is having his best season since 2005 when he won the American League Cy Young Award when he went 21-8 with a 3.43 ERA. He suffered a partially torn rotator cuff in the playoffs that year and hasn’t been anything extraordinary until this season. Colon finished the first half of the 2013 campaign with a 12-3 record to go along with a 2.69 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 120.1 innings.

The right-handed hurler throws mostly fastballs with great movement and is able to keep hitters off-balanced. He has been the top pitcher for an Oakland team that is primed for another playoff run. Colon went undrafted in most leagues and should continue to be solid down the stretch this season.

Struggling hitter who will turn it around:

Morris – Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics, OF

Jay-Z is interested in adding the center fielder as a client to Roc Nation Sports, but it’s not because of his batting average. The newly named Home Run Derby contestant has hit 15 home runs this season but his average is hovering around the Mendoza line at .224. Hell, his OBP (.291) is lower than his average was last year and that’s something that will change soon.

The 27-year-old Cuban has dealt with a myriad of injuries in the first half and it appears that those injuries are past him. I don’t expect Yoenis to have a Yasiel-esque second half but his average will certainly need to rise from the depths that it has reached if the A’s are going to sustain their No. 1 spot in the AL West and make a playoff push.

Firth – Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants, 3B

For Giants fans everywhere, this year has been anything but “Panda-monium”. Before hitting a home run in Thursday night’s game, Pablo Sandoval had gone 101 consecutive at-bats without hitting one out of a ballpark. Although last months nagging foot injury could be to blame for his powerless drought, the Panda still has plenty of time to turn this sub-par season around.

MLB Fantasy Baseball - Midseason Wrap-Up - Pablo Sandoval

Sandoval has hit a modest .269 with nine homers and 42 RBI in 2013, but hasn’t been the .300 career hitter that the Giants are used to seeing. He is swinging at bad pitches more often and is keeping his hitting coach Hensley Muelens’ hands full and his hairs gray. I expect the Kung Fu Panda to bounce back during the second half of the season, but its going to take immense concentration for such an aggressive hitter to lay off luring pitches in the dirt.

Eggers – Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels, OF

The Angels snagged Hamilton in free agency this past offseason with a five-year deal worth $133 million and the slugger hasn’t lived up to the high expectations. He finished the first half with a batting average of .227, 14 big flies and 39 RBIs. Hamilton’s sluggish start in a new uniform is something we’ve seen before from other big free agent signings that try too hard to prove they are worth the enormous contract they are given.

I expect the left-handed hitting veteran to use the All-Star break to refocus and relax a bit to come out on all cylinders for the second half. He is hitting in a potent Angels’ lineup and is just too good of a hitter to not be producing like he did last year when he batted .285 with 43 dingers and 128 RBIs. It’s understandable that fantasy owners are getting restless with his performance this year, but stay patient because better times are ahead.

Struggling pitcher who will turn it around:

Morris – Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals, SP

Stephen Strasburg hasn’t struggled as much as Matt Cain or Josh Johnson, but he’s certainly failed to reach expectations. Last season the right-hander from San Diego State was 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.155 WHIP in 28 games started.

As for this season, the right-handed power pitcher has a 5-7 record with an improved ERA (2.99) and WHIP (1.126). Much of his failures have come down to injuries, a few too many walks (3.1 BB/9) and untimely run support. But if there was a pitcher who has pitched great and it didn’t correlate well for the fantasy teams that owned him, Strasburg is the unfortunate arm behind the below average record.

Firth – Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers, SP

If you drafted Tigers right-hander Doug Fister like I did, then I’m sure he has left you scratching your head as well. Fister had an impressive 2012, but lets just say that the 29-year-old hasn’t exactly been himself again lately, and seems to be getting worse as the season goes on. It is believed that mechanical issues have contributed to the ugly 7.66 ERA that he has posted over his last four starts, making his fantasy value very questionable going forward.

The 6-foot-8 Fister violently throws across his wiry body, creating great deception to opposing right-handed hitters. At times, be can appear un-hittable, and other times, not so much. He carries a 7-5 record going into the All-Star break, but will need to lower his 4.02 ERA if his owners want decent fantasy production out of him. The former Fresno Bulldog has a career record of 37-46 and will look to get closer to a .500 winning percentage within his next ten starts. On the plus side, the Tigers are definitely a run producing team, so even if Fister doesn’t bring his “A” game to the yard on a regular basis, he will always have a decent shot at winning ballgames.

Eggers – Kris Medlen, Atlanta Braves, SP

Many fantasy owners thought Medlen was going to be a top fantasy pitcher this season after he cracked the starting rotation last July, ending 2012 with a 10-1 record and a meniscal 1.69 ERA. It just hasn’t materialized for the 27-year-old so far this season as he carries a 6-9 record into the All-Star break. Medlen hasn’t been very consistent with his command and that has lead to his struggles.

The good news is that the righty has maintained a decent ERA of 3.64 in his 19 starts so far and fantasy owners can’t be too mad at that. Medlen rattled off three straight wins starting in mid-June before being roughed up in his last two outings that both resulted in losses. Although he won’t repeat the same second half he had last season when he won ten straight decisions, I expect Medlen to be a whole lot better the next few months and regain a lot of fantasy value.

Hitter that will regress the most:

Morris – Michael Cuddyer, Colorado

Like Spencer mentioned, Cuddyer has been as consistent as the sun, to the extent that he set the Rockies’ longest hitting streak in franchise history. This was the second longest streak since Dan Uggla hit in 33 straight games in 2011. What makes me think he’ll regress? His career numbers and his age.

The 34-year-old, who will most likely flop in the Home Run Derby, batted .260 with 16 homers (one less than 2013 so far) and under 60 runs and RBI in 2012. While he should be able to finish the season with better numbers in each of those categories, I don’t expect him to reach his projected totals. In the last three seasons he has averaged a .272 average, 17 homers, 70 RBI and 72 runs. Cuddyer will certainly see his numbers fall based on the rule of averages and the fact that he’s a bit long in the tooth. I’d recommend his owners dealing him for something of need and then watching him come down to earth on someone else’s roster.

Firth – James Loney, Tampa Bay Rays, 1B

Rays first baseman James Loney is another player who is having a randomly impressive season. The 29-year-old has been raking this season, hitting .316 and launching nine big flies to go along with his 43 RBI and .367 OBP. These are solid numbers, but I don’t see him succeeding at this level through October. He hit a measly .254 last year with four homers and 33 RBI in 114 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers, before he started platooning mid-season at first base with teammate Juan Rivera.

Loney has been a viable fantasy option this year, but his inconsistent numbers throughout his career definitely raise questions. The .285 career hitter rarely breaks double digits in home runs in a season, and has just 82 in his eight-year career. Don’t get me wrong, the guy certainly knows his way around a batter’s box, but I wouldn’t expect him to continue to lead your fantasy squad if I were you.

Eggers – Dominic Brown, Philadelphia Phillies, OF

For awhile there in May, it seemed like Brown’s torrid hitting would never slow down as he bashed 12 homeruns in the month and sits at 23 right now. His run of long balls seemingly came out of nowhere given the fact he had only hit had only hit 12 dingers in 492 career at-bats in the Big Leagues over the past three seasons. The 25-year-old was considered a top prospect a couple years ago and some people around baseball were starting to write him off as bust before he matured into a legit power threat 10 weeks ago. With that all being said, Brown is a candidate to regress as the season grows older and fantasy owners may want to ‘sell high’ as soon as possible.

Philadelphia could very well be “sellers” at the trade deadline later this month, which could dramatically weaken their lineup and allow pitchers to avoid pitching to Brown as often. Pitchers are starting to adjust to him already as his batting average has dropped 24 points since June 8th when he was hitting .293 (he’s now down to .269). Brown is a free swinger with 70 strikeouts and has only taken 24 walks in 379 plate appearances so far this season. Fantasy owners who rode his hot hitting in the first half will be seeing a big drop off the rest of the way.

Pitcher that will regress the most:

Morris – Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians

Masterson has been the ace that Cleveland hoped he would be this season, but his statistics don’t correlate well with his 10-7 record. The 28-year-old righty ranks among the top pitchers in the league and I’d expect more losses to come if he continues having have a mediocre ERA (3.68) and WHIP (1.227). His strikeouts have put him where he’s at in the rankings but I wouldn’t expect him to continue at the rate he’s going.

Of the pitchers that rank alongside Masterson, most have an ERA under or around 3.00. Examples of why he’s an outlier in the top of the rankings can be seen in two of his last four starts when he allowed six earned runs against both Baltimore and Detroit. If I owned Masterson, I’d thank him for his first half and send him to a team that doesn’t know any better.

Firth – Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals

Dart thrower Lynn is having the best season of his young career, and between him, Adam Wainwright, and Shelby Miller, the Cardinals are looking like one of baseball’s teams to beat. The 26-year-old from Indiana was drafted by the Cards in the first-round of the 2008 MLB Amateur Draft, and quickly flew through the ranks before being named the Cardinals 2009 Minor League Pitcher of the Year. After pitching a few spot starts in not only the 2011 NLCS but the World Series as well, the right-hander ended up taking aging and injured Chris Carpenter’s spot in the rotation.

Postseason experience is something that most young pitchers don’t have and this has obviously helped Lynn. He owns an 11-4 record to accompany his 3.92 ERA and 115 strikeouts in 2013. Despite his positive numbers for the year, Lynn has been very inconsistent lately, giving me reason to believe that his second half won’t be as productive as the first. He has lost three out of his last four starts, and over his last seven games, has allowed four or more runs five times, while allowing two or fewer runs in the other two outings. Let the roller coaster ride begin!

Eggers – Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals

Miller has been one of the best rookies so far this season and has gone from being undrafted in most fantasy leagues to being owned in every league. The 22-year-old former first-round pick in 2009 has a 9-6 record and a stellar 2.96 ERA in 18 starts this season. As a fantasy owner of Miller myself, don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see the kid continue his strong play this season.

We have seen it with so many young arms is seasons past that the grueling nature of a Major League season doesn’t wear well in the second half. He has struggled some in his past few outings and hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning since June 1st. Miller will be a great fantasy asset for the next 10 plus seasons if he stays healthy, just don’t expect him to be at his best the rest of the season.

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